Bel Air South, Maryland 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

341
FXUS61 KLWX 060756
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
356 AM EDT Fri Jun 6 2025

.SYNOPSIS...

A weak area of low pressure over eastern North Carolina will
move offshore by this evening. Meanwhile, a cold front will
slowly work east from the Ohio River Valley today and approach
the area Saturday before pushing south of the area Sunday.
A stronger cold front will cross the area during the middle
portion of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

Two areas of light showers are seen on regional radars early
this morning. One is over the southern Delmarva Peninsula
associated with a weak low over eastern NC and a second area of
showers over the Appalachian Mountains. However, most areas
should remain dry through about 15Z.

Heights will gradually fall over the region over the next 60
hours or through the day Sunday. This will support a lee-side
trof this afternoon and promote moisture and instability to
support showers and thunderstorms, particularly west of the Blue
Ridge Mountains. T-storm activity is expected to spread east and
reach the metros during the evening hours. There is a risk of
some severe wx this afternoon, mainly for areas west of I-81 and
into northern MD and PA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

A cold front will enter the fcst area Saturdday and continue to
support the risk of showers and thunderstorms Saturday and
through the weekend. Both forcing and moisture will be plentiful
to support numerous to widespread showers and thunderstorms.
Instability will be modest due to widespread clouds and weak
lapse rates.

Trough axis is expected to shift east of the area Sunday night,
which should result in a decreasing trend of showers. However,
summer fronts/troughs tend to move slower than model guidance
indicate. So, we`ll see about this.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

A broad longwave trough with an embedded closed upper low is
forecast to dive southeastward from the Canadian Prairie Provinces
and Northern Plains toward the Great Lakes and eventually the
Northeast on Monday and Tuesday. That will place us within
southwesterly flow aloft ahead of the approaching trough. Gradual
height falls aloft atop a seasonably warm and humid airmass will
lead to development of at least weak surface based instability on
both Monday and Tuesday. Deep layer shear will also be on the
increase ahead of the approaching trough. Showers and thunderstorms
appear possible on both Monday and Tuesday afternoon, and a few
stronger storms can`t be ruled out given the overlap of instability
and deep layer shear present.

Most model guidance shows the aforementioned trough progressing off
to our east by Wednesday, with weak upper ridging building in for
the middle of the week. This should result in drier conditions
locally for Wednesday and Thursday. Temperatures should remain
seasonable, with highs generally in the low-mid 80s and overnight
lows in the upper 50s and 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

Sct t-storms expected around the metro terminals this evening
and likely at MRB. They should dissipate by 02Z, if not sooner.
More widespread showers and t-storms are expected Sat into Sun
as a cold front slowly crosses the area.

Prevailing VFR conditions are expected on both Monday and Tuesday,
but temporary drops to sub-VFR conditions may be possible either
afternoon. Winds are expected to be out of the south to southwest
both days.

&&

.MARINE...

Generally, light winds below 10 kt through Sunday. Lightning
will be the main threat over the weekend. Winds increase Sunday
behind a weak cold front and SCAs may become necessary.

Sub-SCA level south to southwesterly winds are expected on both
Monday and Tuesday. Thunderstorms may be possible either afternoon.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LFR
NEAR TERM...LFR
SHORT TERM...LFR
LONG TERM...KJP
AVIATION...LFR/KJP
MARINE...LFR/KJP